2013年，黄金命悬QE一线，然而黄金却最终为”E”消得人憔悴：12年来首度下跌、年度跌幅达28%，创30年来最大跌幅。随着美联储在年末宣布削减QE，黄金能否得到喘息，不再为QE马首是瞻了呢?2014，黄金又该看谁的脸色呢?
黄金仍需看美联储脸色在美联储主席伯南克在2013年年中提出未来将退出QE后，2013年后半年，美联储在黄金市场可谓是呼风唤雨，因为QE是金融危机以来支撑黄金上涨的血脉。2013年末，美联储虽然作出了缩减QE的决定，但美联储未来缩减的步伐和节奏仍是控制着黄金市场的”养料点滴”。如美国经济向好，美联储可能加大每月缩减购债的规模，黄金市场上涨所需养分将被快速冻结。黄金在2014年仍需看美联储脸色。
美指的重要性在削弱曾几何时，美元与黄金坐在跷跷板的两头，一个跌了，一个就涨。但黄金在2013年下跌28%，而美元指数在去年却始终在78.9-84.75之间弱势震荡整理，并无明显的方向。二者的负相关性貌似在减弱，这从去年5月下旬至6月上旬，黄金同美指一同下跌十余个交易日的表现也可窥见一斑。之所以出现这一状况，是美元的世界货币低位所致，加之美联储长时间实行量化宽松政策所产生的流动性在全球范围释放，在短期内无法收回，供求失衡导致美元汇率对自身经济不响应。2014年美国虽然启动了缩减QE的步伐，但美联储的资产负债表仍在膨胀，所以，虽然美指与黄金的负相关性仍在，但这种相关系数降低已是不争的事实。
黄金走势看美股美元指数与黄金走势呈负相关相比早已为投资者熟知。但2014年，黄金可能更需要关注美股的走势。且看这组数据，2013年，黄金下跌28%，美股上涨29%，黄金与美股一个向左，一个向右，上演冰火两重天。在去年美国经济呈现复苏之态，而QE3仍大行其道的时候，逐利的资金已经不满足于黄金这只”不会下蛋的鸡”了，因此流入股市，并促成了美股去年的繁荣。2014新年伊始，伴随着美股开门重挫0.9%，黄金则惊艳亮相，上涨1.5%。虽然黄金的上涨有实物需求和抄底买盘以及空头回补的推动，但还有一部分原因是美股投资者获利了结，资金重投黄金的怀抱。但美股的调整只会是暂时的，因为股市是经济的晴雨表，伴随着美国经济复苏脚步加快，美股将继续上涨。只不过这次美股上涨的动力将由2013年的资金推动型转变为经济良性发展推动型。
2014，黄金并非胜算全无2014年，美国进入危机之后的第六年。从今年开始，美联储开启了缩减QE的步伐，直至退出。在美国经济迈入复苏经济周期、美元王者归来之后，黄金是不是就注定萎靡不振了呢?其实，黄金也并非胜算全无。
鑫圣贵金属xs9999hk.com知道，黄金在去年的大跌很大程度上就是因为美国经济复苏，削弱了黄金的避险功能，使资金从金市抽离转入美股等风险资产，但美国通胀率迟迟不见升高，使黄金对抗通胀的特性也无法发挥。然而，今年这种情况可能会有所改变。
根据经济周期理论，随着经济逐渐复苏，将跨入另一个景气循环，在这期间，股市虽然仍处于上行但加速度在减小，而商品价格虽然处于底部，却开始暗流涌动，趋向上行。因为经济景气的到来将推升经济体的通胀水平。一般说来，在大部分时间周期内，债市引导美股，美股引导黄金，而黄金又引导债市，形成一个循环。在经济衰退时期，黄金大部分时间内与美股走向相同，随着经济摆脱衰退，步入复苏，美股与黄金将呈现反向相关。如果大家看下2008-2013年金价和标普500的走势图，就能印证这一观点：在危机之后至2011年9月，美指与黄金一同上涨，而金价在2011年9月见顶之后开始走下坡路，但美股却一直高歌猛进。这说明美国经济自2011年末以来已经开始步入复苏，2014年则很可能是衰退结束以来经济增长最为强劲一年。由于市场预期未来美国经济复苏会抬高物价，衡量通胀预期的美国10年期国债收益率和抗通胀保值政府债券收益率之间的息差已经从一个月前的2.1%升至2.28%，为去年5月以来最高水平。
也许在连续12年上涨、又遭遇30年来最大跌幅的”盛极而衰”之后，黄金未来不需要再”摧眉折腰侍权贵”，通胀可使再次黄金一飞冲天。
2014 , gold demand to see who ‘s face ?
2013 , gold hanging QE line, but the gold was eventually “E” to eliminate people languish : first decline in 12 years , the annual decline of 28 percent , the biggest decline in 30 years hit . As the Fed cuts announced at the end of QE, gold can get respite , QE is no longer following the lead of it ? 2014 , gold should we see who ‘s face it?
Gold still see the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will exit after the next QE, 2013 after six months in mid-2013 , the Fed’s gold market can be anything they want, because QE is supporting gold prices since the financial crisis of blood. The end of 2013 , although the Fed made ??the decision to reduce the QE , the Fed reduced the pace and rhythm of the future is still in control of the gold market, ” nourishment drip .” As the U.S. economy to improve, the Fed could increase the size of the monthly reduction in purchased debt , rising gold market will be quickly frozen necessary nutrients . Gold in 2014 still need to see the Federal Reserve .
The importance of the United States refers to a time when the weakening U.S. dollar and gold sitting in the ends of a seesaw , one down , and one on the rise. But gold fell by 28% in 2013 , while the U.S. dollar index last year but always between 78.9-84.75 weak shock consolidation , there is no clear direction . Negative correlation between the two seemingly on the wane , which late last year in early May to June, with U.S. gold futures fell more than ten trading days with the performance but also get a glimpse. The reason why this situation is due to the low dollar world currency , coupled with the Fed’s quantitative easing long generated liquidity worldwide release , you can not recover in the short term , supply and demand imbalance in the dollar exchange rate does not respond to their own economic . Although the United States launched in 2014 to reduce the pace of QE , the Fed ‘s balance sheet is still swelling , so, although the United States refers to the negative correlation with the gold still there, but this correlation coefficient is reduced is an indisputable fact.
Gold trend to see the dollar index and gold stocks were negatively correlated movements compared to already known to investors . But in 2014 , gold stocks may be more concerned about the trend needs . Let us look at this set of data , in 2013 , gold fell 28% , U.S. stocks rose 29 percent , gold and stocks one left, one right , staged rainbow night . In the last year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery of the state, while QE3 still popular when fame and fortune in gold funds have been satisfied with this ” do not lay eggs in the chicken “, and therefore into the stock market , and contributed to the prosperity of the U.S. stock market last year . 2014 New Year, along with U.S. stocks tumbled 0.9 percent to open the door , gold is a stunning debut , up 1.5%. Although the rise in physical demand for gold has short-covering and bargain-hunting buying and promoting , but partly because Wall Street investors took profits , capital re-enter the golden arms. But U.S. stocks will only be a temporary adjustment , because the stock market is a barometer of the economy , along with the United States to accelerate the pace of economic recovery , stocks will continue to rise. U.S. stocks rose but this power shift in 2013 will be driven funding for the healthy development of the economy driven .
2014 , gold is not no chance of winning in 2014 , the United States entered the sixth year after the crisis . Beginning this year, the Federal Reserve opened a reduced pace of QE until the exit. Recovery in the U.S. economy into the economic cycle , the U.S. dollar after the return of the king , gold is not doomed flagging it? Fact , gold is not no chance of winning .
We know that gold in last year’s slump is largely because the U.S. economic recovery , weakening the gold hedging , make money from the gold market pulled into stocks and other risky assets , but the United States still have not seen the inflation rate rises so that the characteristics of gold against inflation can not play . However, this year, this situation may change .
According to the economic cycle theory , as the economy gradually recovers , will enter another boom cycle , during which , although still in the stock market upward , but the acceleration is reduced, while commodity prices have at the bottom , but it started simmering, upward trend . Since the advent of economic boom will push up inflation economies. In general, most of the time period , the bond market to guide U.S. stocks , gold stocks guide , while gold and guidance bond , forming a loop. During the recession , the gold stocks most of the time with the same trend as the economy out of recession into recovery , stocks and gold will show a reverse correlation . In the aftermath of the crisis until after September 2011 , www.xs9999hk.comthe United States refers to the rise along with gold , and the gold price peaked in September 2011 : If we look at the annuity 2008-2013 and the S & P 500 chart , we can confirm this view began to decline , but Wall Street has been triumphantly . This shows that the U.S. economy has entered a recovery since the beginning of the end of 2011 , in 2014 it is likely that the economic recession since the end of the year, the strongest growth . As the market is expected to spread in the future U.S. economic recovery will raise prices, a measure of inflation expectations the U.S. 10-year bond yields and inflation- protected government bond yields have risen between 2.1% from 2.28% a month ago , as the highest level since last May .
Maybe in 12 years up , they suffered the biggest decline in 30 years, the ” boom-bust “, the golden future does not need to ” destroy eyebrow bow paternity elite ,” Huang Jin Yifei soaring inflation can again .
« 临县大禹乡